I Assist National Statistics Offices Improve Their Statistics and National Accounts Program
Hello and thank you for visiting my webpage.
My name is Roger Sceviour. I have over 25 years experience in the field of National Accounts Statistics at Statistics Canada, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the South Asia Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC), and as an independent consultant.
I have provided nearly 40 technical assistance and training service activities to Statistical Offices in North America, the Caribbean and South Asia.​
EXPERTISE
My expertise lies primarily in the core system of national accounts. This includes;
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Annual GDP Compilation which adheres to SNA 2008
I can assist with ensuring an annual GDP compilation system is consistent with the recommendations of the System of Accounts Manual 2008. This includes complex methodological methods which relate to financial services, the treatment of insurance, pension funds, and social security transactions. At a minimum the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) recommends that annual GDP be compiled for the both the production and expenditure accounts. A diagnostic of the current GDP compilation method is useful for identifying areas where improvements can be made to more closely align with SNA 2008.
Quarterly GDP
The last thirteen years contained two large shocks to the global economy as a result of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020/2021 COVID-19 crisis. In light of this, it is critical that Statistical Offices have a quarterly GDP (QGDP) program in order for policy makers to have the most timely information on economic activity. I have assisted countries develop such a program. Broadly, the main steps are: searching for and testing quarterly indicators; benchmarking these indicators to the annual GDP program; and, improving the accuracy through the construction and analysis of revision triangles. A QGDP program can be developed using the production method and/or the expenditure method. Although there are exceptions, most statistical offices are able to collect a sufficient amount of information to utilize the production method. I have assisted the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics develop a preliminary QGDP program, and improving the quarterly compilation system of the National Bureau of Statistics of Maldives.
GDP Rebasing
Rebasing of GDP means replacing the old base year used for the compilation of constant price estimates with a more recent year. Most Statistical Offices will also take this opportunity to update the sources and methods of the national accounts, expand the scope, and develop other products within the Sequence of Accounts. These new estimates are developed through the compilation of detailed supply and use tables (SUT). This usually results in a different level and composition of GDP at current prices, relative to the previously published estimates. It is recommended to then backcast these updated estimates to at least the previous base year. I have extensive experience assisting statistical offices rebase GDP including the offices of Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Belize.
Expenditure-Based GDP
In addition to production-based GDP estimates, the ISWGNA also recommends compilation and publication using the expenditure approach (GDP-E). Although the availability of data sources to estimate GDP-E are often less than production-based estimates, GDP-E can still be compiled and published as a complementary product to production-based estimates. These GDP-E estimates will usually contain a statistical discrepancy. I have assisted the National Bureau of Statistics of Maldives develop and disseminate their GDP-E program.
Seasonal Adjustment
Ideally, QGDP estimates or monthly indices of production should be seasonally adjusted. This will allow for a quarter on quarter, or, month on month analysis of the change in economic activity, controlling for seasonal patters. Although this is a subject that is relatively technical, the steps required to compile preliminary estimates of a seasonally adjusted series are relatively straight-forward. These steps contain testing for seasonality, developing a seasonal adjustment calendar, and integrating seasonal adjustment within the production process. I have assisted the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation of India develop preliminary estimates of seasonally adjusted QGDP.
SERVICES
Technical Assistance
I provide technical assistance (TA) either directly to National Statistical Offices, or, indirectly, through capacity development providers such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the United Nations. The usual format of this assistance is through one or two week missions, which focus on specific milestones, workplans, or strategic objectives. Depending on the complexity and scope of the project, two to three missions maybe appropriate. Missions can be intensive and have a daily duration of up to ten hours. They can also be for only two to three hours per day, depending on the availability of national accounts compilers. As well, some direct assistance projects can be intensive for longer durations (one or more months) depending the urgency to complete a project.
In practice, missions are usually in-person, at the location of the National Statistics Office. Although, they can also be virtual, through the use of Zoom, Webex, or other technologies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, missions have been exclusively virtual.
At the end of missions, a detailed TA report is provided. This report reviews the work that has been performed, discusses the recommendations, and outlines a workplan and milestones for further development.
Training
I also provide generalized and customized training. Like TA missions, these training programs are usually one to two weeks in duration. As well, they can be delivered in-person, or, through a virtual setting. Training programs usually contain lectures, group projects, and workshops.
The topics from which I have delivered training include: An Introduction to National Accounts; Advanced Issues in National Accounts; Quarterly National Accounts; GDP Rebasing; Sequence of Accounts; Supply and Use Tables, Input-Output Tables and Their Extensions; Seasonal Adjustment; and, Business Survey Design.
PROJECTS
